RESEARCH CONCLUSIONS
While there is no single pathway that every dropout follows, there are common patterns, common crisis spots in the pipeline and common signposts, too.
Longitudinal studies consistently identify a specific set of general educational risk factors as highly predictive of dropping out. The transition to middle school and high school is a critically important time for students. Many dropouts begin to show warning signs and downward trends in 6th grade or 9th grade. Transition-year failure often begins very early, and powerful risk factors can be observed even during the first month of school. Students with poor prior achievement and behavior are more likely to fail during transition years. School factors independently influence whether incoming freshmen will graduate from high school or fall off track on the way to a diploma.
Croninger, R.G. & Lee, V.E. (2001). “Social Capital and Dropping Out of HighSchool: Benefits to At-Risk Students of Teachers’ Support and Guidance.” Teachers College Record, 103, 548–581.
See also Lee, V.E. & Burkham, D.T. (2000). Dropping Out of High School: The Role of School Organization and Structure. Paper presented for the conference Dropouts in America: How Severe Is the Problem? What Do We Know about Intervention and Prevention? Harvard Graduate School of Education, Cambridge, MA, January 13, 2001.
Jordon, W.J., Lara, J., & McPartland, J.M. (1999). “Rethinking the Cause of High School Dropout.” The Prevention Researcher, 6, 1–4.
Rumberger, R.W. (2004). “Why Students Drop Out of School.” In Orfield, G. (Ed.), Dropouts in America: Confronting the Graduation Rate Crisis (pp. 131–156). Cambridge, MA: Harvard Education Press.